We’ve
been riding a nice wave the past several years now – one of the biggest bull
runs since the Great Depression. That has a lot of people getting excited about
equities and piling in. Unfortunately, many have missed a roughly 130% run-up
of the S&P 500, since early 2009.
What
is worse, many of these people got out of the market in late 2008 / early 2009,
when values were terribly depressed. Hundreds of billions of dollars were
yanked out of the equity market during this time. Why do we do this over and
over, cycle after cycle? Emotions.
“In
bear markets, it's fear and panic that take over, and the stomach overrules the
head. Stomachs rarely make good decisions.” –Larry Swedroe
Read
that quote recently, and love it – a great point to remember when (not if) the
next bear market comes along. Bear markets should be viewed as an opportunity
to purchase quality merchandise on sale. This all leads to my point: Without commitment
to a plan of attack for our investment dollars, we are left to act on emotions.
A well-designed plan for your situation should take into account the timing of
your likely cash needs, and accommodate your specific risk tolerance or
aversion to it. A well-thought-out plan will allow your portfolio to take
advantage of market fluctuations, instead of running with the crowd, chasing returns
that are already history.
